Post-discharge health assessment in survivors of coronavirus disease: a time-point analysis of a prospective cohort study.

PURPOSE:  The objective of this study was to quantitatively evaluate psychological and quality of life-related complications at three months following discharge in hospitalized coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients during the pandemic in Iran. METHODS: In this time-point analysis of prospective cohort study data, adult patients hospitalized with symptoms suggestive of COVID-19 were enrolled. Patients were stratified in analyses based on severity. The primary outcomes consisted of psychological problems and pulmonary function tests (PFTs) in the three months following discharge, with Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) as the secondary outcome. Exploratory predictors were determined for both primary and secondary outcomes. RESULTS: 283 out of 900 (30%) eligible patients were accessible for the follow-up assessment and included in the study. The mean age was 53.65 ± 13.43 years, with 68% experiencing a severe disease course. At the time of the final follow-up, participants still reported persistent symptoms, among which fatigue, shortness of breath, and cough were the most common. Based on the regression-adjusted analysis, lower levels of forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) to forced vital capacity (FVC) ratio was associated with higher levels of depression (standardized ß = - 0.161 (SE = 0.042), P = 0.017) and stress levels (standardized ß =- 0.110 (SE = 0.047), P = 0.015). Furthermore, higher levels of anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin-M (IgM) were associated with significantly lower levels of depression (standardized ß = - 0.139 (SE = 0.135), P = 0.031). CONCLUSIONS: There is an association between lung damage during COVID-19 and the reduction of pulmonary function for up to three months from acute infection in hospitalized patients. Varying degrees of anxiety, depression, stress, and low HRQoL frequently occur in patients with COVID-19. More severe lung damage and lower COVID-19 antibodies were associated with lower levels of psychological health.

Target Trial Emulation Using Hospital-Based Observational Data: Demonstration and Application in COVID-19.

Methodological biases are common in observational studies evaluating treatment effectiveness. The objective of this study is to emulate a target trial in a competing risks setting using hospital-based observational data. We extend established methodology accounting for immortal time bias and time-fixed confounding biases to a setting where no survival information beyond hospital discharge is available: a condition common to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) research data. This exemplary study includes a cohort of 618 hospitalized patients with COVID-19. We describe methodological opportunities and challenges that cannot be overcome applying traditional statistical methods. We demonstrate the practical implementation of this trial emulation approach via clone-censor-weight techniques. We undertake a competing risk analysis, reporting the cause-specific cumulative hazards and cumulative incidence probabilities. Our analysis demonstrates that a target trial emulation framework can be extended to account for competing risks in COVID-19 hospital studies. In our analysis, we avoid immortal time bias, time-fixed confounding bias, and competing risks bias simultaneously. Choosing the length of the grace period is justified from a clinical perspective and has an important advantage in ensuring reliable results. This extended trial emulation with the competing risk analysis enables an unbiased estimation of treatment effects, along with the ability to interpret the effectiveness of treatment on all clinically important outcomes.

Automatic Classification Between COVID-19 and Non-COVID-19 Pneumonia Using Symptoms, Comorbidities, and Laboratory Findings: The Khorshid COVID Cohort Study.

Coronavirus disease-2019, also known as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), was a disaster in 2020. Accurate and early diagnosis of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) is still essential for health policymaking. Reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) has been performed as the operational gold standard for COVID-19 diagnosis. We aimed to design and implement a reliable COVID-19 diagnosis method to provide the risk of infection using demographics, symptoms and signs, blood markers, and family history of diseases to have excellent agreement with the results obtained by the RT-PCR and CT-scan. Our study primarily used sample data from a 1-year hospital-based prospective COVID-19 open-cohort, the Khorshid COVID Cohort (KCC) study. A sample of 634 patients with COVID-19 and 118 patients with pneumonia with similar characteristics whose RT-PCR and chest CT scan were negative (as the control group) (dataset 1) was used to design the system and for internal validation. Two other online datasets, namely, some symptoms (dataset 2) and blood tests (dataset 3), were also analyzed. A combination of one-hot encoding, stability feature selection, over-sampling, and an ensemble classifier was used. Ten-fold stratified cross-validation was performed. In addition to gender and symptom duration, signs and symptoms, blood biomarkers, and comorbidities were selected. Performance indices of the cross-validated confusion matrix for dataset 1 were as follows: sensitivity of 96% [confidence interval, CI, 95%: 94-98], specificity of 95% [90-99], positive predictive value (PPV) of 99% [98-100], negative predictive value (NPV) of 82% [76-89], diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) of 496 [198-1,245], area under the ROC (AUC) of 0.96 [0.94-0.97], Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC) of 0.87 [0.85-0.88], accuracy of 96% [94-98], and Cohen's Kappa of 0.86 [0.81-0.91]. The proposed algorithm showed excellent diagnosis accuracy and class-labeling agreement, and fair discriminant power. The AUC on the datasets 2 and 3 was 0.97 [0.96-0.98] and 0.92 [0.91-0.94], respectively. The most important feature was white blood cell count, shortness of breath, and C-reactive protein for datasets 1, 2, and 3, respectively. The proposed algorithm is, thus, a promising COVID-19 diagnosis method, which could be an amendment to simple blood tests and screening of symptoms. However, the RT-PCR and chest CT-scan, performed as the gold standard, are not 100% accurate.

COVID-SAFE: An IoT-Based System for Automated Health Monitoring and Surveillance in Post-Pandemic Life.

In the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic with no designated cure or vaccine, the only way to break the infection chain is self-isolation and maintaining the physical distancing. In this article, we present a potential application of the Internet of Things (IoT) in healthcare and physical distance monitoring for pandemic situations. The proposed framework consists of three parts: a lightweight and low-cost IoT node, a smartphone application (app), and fog-based Machine Learning (ML) tools for data analysis and diagnosis. The IoT node tracks health parameters, including body temperature, cough rate, respiratory rate, and blood oxygen saturation, then updates the smartphone app to display the user health conditions. The app notifies the user to maintain a physical distance of 2 m (or 6 ft), which is a key factor in controlling virus spread. In addition, a Fuzzy Mamdani system (running at the fog server) considers the environmental risk and user health conditions to predict the risk of spreading infection in real time. The environmental risk conveys from the virtual zone concept and provides updated information for different places. Two scenarios are considered for the communication between the IoT node and fog server, 4G/5G/WiFi, or LoRa, which can be selected based on environmental constraints. The required energy usage and bandwidth (BW) are compared for various event scenarios. The COVID-SAFE framework can assist in minimizing the coronavirus exposure risk.

Absolute mortality risk assessment of COVID-19 patients: the Khorshid COVID Cohort (KCC) study.

BACKGROUND: Already at hospital admission, clinicians require simple tools to identify hospitalized COVID-19 patients at high risk of mortality. Such tools can significantly improve resource allocation and patient management within hospitals. From the statistical point of view, extended time-to-event models are required to account for competing risks (discharge from hospital) and censoring so that active cases can also contribute to the analysis. METHODS: We used the hospital-based open Khorshid COVID Cohort (KCC) study with 630 COVID-19 patients from Isfahan, Iran. Competing risk methods are used to develop a death risk chart based on the following variables, which can simply be measured at hospital admission: sex, age, hypertension, oxygen saturation, and Charlson Comorbidity Index. The area under the receiver operator curve was used to assess accuracy concerning discrimination between patients discharged alive and dead. RESULTS: Cause-specific hazard regression models show that these baseline variables are associated with both death, and discharge hazards. The risk chart reflects the combined results of the two cause-specific hazard regression models. The proposed risk assessment method had a very good accuracy (AUC = 0.872 [CI 95%: 0.835-0.910]). CONCLUSIONS: This study aims to improve and validate a personalized mortality risk calculator based on hospitalized COVID-19 patients. The risk assessment of patient mortality provides physicians with additional guidance for making tough decisions.

A one-year hospital-based prospective COVID-19 open-cohort in the Eastern Mediterranean region: The Khorshid COVID Cohort (KCC) study.

The COVID-19 is rapidly scattering worldwide, and the number of cases in the Eastern Mediterranean Region is rising. Thus, there is a need for immediate targeted actions. We designed a longitudinal study in a hot outbreak zone to analyze the serial findings between infected patients for detecting temporal changes from February 2020. In a hospital-based open-cohort study, patients are followed from admission until one year from their discharge (the 1st, 4th, 12th weeks, and the first year). The patient recruitment phase finished at the end of August 2020, and the follow-up continues by the end of August 2021. The measurements included demographic, socio-economics, symptoms, health service diagnosis and treatment, contact history, and psychological variables. The signs improvement, death, length of stay in hospital were considered primary, and impaired pulmonary function and psychotic disorders were considered main secondary outcomes. Moreover, clinical symptoms and respiratory functions are being determined in such follow-ups. Among the first 600 COVID-19 cases, 490 patients with complete information (39% female; the average age of 57±15 years) were analyzed. Seven percent of these patients died. The three main leading causes of admission were: fever (77%), dry cough (73%), and fatigue (69%). The most prevalent comorbidities between COVID-19 patients were hypertension (35%), diabetes (28%), and ischemic heart disease (14%). The percentage of primary composite endpoints (PCEP), defined as death, the use of mechanical ventilation, or admission to an intensive care unit was 18%. The Cox Proportional-Hazards Model for PCEP indicated the following significant risk factors: Oxygen saturation < 80% (HR = 6.3; [CI 95%: 2.5,15.5]), lymphopenia (HR = 3.5; [CI 95%: 2.2,5.5]), Oxygen saturation 80%-90% (HR = 2.5; [CI 95%: 1.1,5.8]), and thrombocytopenia (HR = 1.6; [CI 95%: 1.1,2.5]). This long-term prospective Cohort may support healthcare professionals in the management of resources following this pandemic.